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NRF: Retail Sales to Surpass $4.44 Trillion this Year

The National Retail Federation prediction was revised from its earlier numbers revealed in February.

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The National Retail Federation (NRF; Washington, D.C.) revised its annual forecast for 2021, predicting retail sales will exceed $4.44 trillion this year, up to $4.56 trillion – a growth between 10.5 and 13.5 percent, according to a press release. Revealed during the association’s “State of Retail and the Consumer” event, the prediction exceeds NRF’s original projection of 6.5 percent growth from February 2021.

Online and “non-store” sales are included in the retail sales figure and are expected to continue their growth trajectory between 18 and 23 percent – $1.09 trillion to $1.13 trillion – while shoppers continue to embrace online shopping and e-commerce post-pandemic. A full-year GDP growth is also anticipated to reach nearly 7 percent, up from the 4.4-5 percent predicted earlier this year.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz says: “We are seeing clear signs of a strong and resilient economy … Incoming data suggests that U.S. economic activity continues to expand rapidly, and we have seen impressive growth. Most indicators point toward an energetic expansion over the upcoming months and through the remainder of the year.”

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