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Future Health Expenditures Are Projected to Outpace GDP Through 2031

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Spending on health care is expected to continue to balloon for Americans over the next decade.

In fact, health expenditures in the United States are projected to grow faster than the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) year over year from 2022 to 2031.

The startling news comes according to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ annual report which recently was released.

The report projects health expenditures to increase by an average of 5.4% over the coming years. During that same time, the GDP is expected to grow on average of 4.5 percent yearly.

The report shows average yearly increases across the healthcare spectrum:

  • Medicare costs: 7.5%
  • Private health insurance: 5.4%
  • Prescription drugs: 4.6%
  • Physician and clinical services: 5.3%
  • Hospital spending: 5.8%

There will be some expenditure relief when it comes to out-of-pocket prescription drug spending. Medicare Part D enrollees are expected to see spending declines of 5.9% and 4.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The projected drop is due to a handful of provisions included in new health law.

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